After predicted to win the gubernatorial elections in West Java and North Sumatra, Tifatul Sembiring, the President of PKS, boosted that the victories will subsequently increase the party’s votes in 2009.

“The victories are our asset to achieve the 20 percent target of votes in the 2009 national election... We have won 89 out of 149 elections,” he said as quoted by Detikcom.

He further said that West Java and North Sumatra are two big provinces and therefore crucial as an indication for the 2009 national parliament election. However, we have to also carefully note that gubernatorial election focuses on figures, not the parties. The two types of elections must not be generalised.

We have seen the result of the 2004 national elections. President Yudhoyono won the presidential election, although his party, Partai Demokrat, only achieved the fifth position in the parliament election. In the latter, the Golkar Party, which is now chaired by Vice President Kalla, was the winner.

In addition, statistics have shown that religion-based political parties are losing popularity. Since the first general election in 1955, Islamic –and Christian—parties never obtained more than 20 percent of votes. Therefore, if PKS is to achieve its target in 2009, it has to move its ideological basis more to the centre. Can PKS, the –only—Islamic ideological party do it? I honestly doubt it.