Indonesia's New Record: Bird Flu!

Indonesia has so many 'achievements' that we can't be proud of and this time is: bird flu fatalities.

On January 29, 2008, Indonesia has reached the 100^th death of a 23-year-old woman.

On January 30, 2008, a 32-year-old man in Tangerang was reported as the 101^st victim of the H5N1 virus.


Currently, Indonesia's death toll is the highest in the world and almost half of the total worldwide fatalities. That's Indonesia's statistics, but the people who died are not merely numbers. So, Mr. President, instead of keeping yourself busy to give Suharto a national hero title, you should do something to stop this virus takes another life your citizen. Continue>>

Questioning Suharto’s Economic Achievements

Following Suharto’s death, the public opinion is divided between those who praise Suharto as a ‘hero’ and others who see him as a ‘villain’. Nevertheless, generally both sides agree that Indonesian economy during Suharto’s reign was a success story.

Is it true that the ‘smiling general’ was successful in developing Indonesia’s economy? A mere observation on economic growth during the first-half of his time in power might give ‘yes’ as an answer. Yet, if we honestly observe the country’s history of economic development, we can get a different answer.


The Beginning of the “New Order” Regime

The power shift from Sukarno to Suharto is a change of Indonesia’s economic direction from an independent position towards global capitalism (“Berdikari”, Berdiri di Atas Kaki Sendiri [stand on our own feet]) to fully enter and support western capitalism.

Soon after he gained power, Suharto, supported by American trained economists, declared a new direction for Indonesia’s political-economy that is based on economic growth through foreign investments.

Winters (1996) notes how Indonesia’s economy was carved up, sector by sector, through closed negotiations between the foreign investors and the Indonesian government officials. The result was spectacular. The Freeport Company gained a mountain of copper in West Papua, an American and European consortium got West Papua’s nickel, the giant Alcoa company obtained the biggest proportion of Indonesia’s bauxite, and a group of American, Japanese and French companies acquired the tropical forests of Sumatra, West Papua and Kalimantan.

The meeting also marked the beginning of Indonesia’s economic development, which was subsequently followed by foreign control on Indonesia’s national natural resources that were protected during the Sukarno’s administration.

Industrialisation

The next phase of Indonesia’s economic development is industrialisation. Protectionism, which was the dominant school of thought at the time, was implemented in the beginning of the country’s industrialisation. Facilities were given to various sectors to defend them from unequal global competition. This is, of course, not a wrong strategy.

However, the implementation was not fully based on profitability and comparative advantage to build a strong industrial foundation for the country. Protection and facilities were granted to benefit Suharto’s cronies and later his family and children (for example, remember the ‘Mobnas [national car] project’ granted to Tommy Suharto).

As a result, protections were given to unprofitable sectors as long as they can serve the interests of the family. People without true entrepreneurship were given facilities and Indonesia’s industry became inefficient and the aims of protectionist policies to develop the country’s industrial foundation were consequently not fulfilled.

The industrialisation phase also instigated an economic system that nowadays is dubbed as ‘crony-capitalism’. The table below shows that almost all major industries; cement, automotive, agri-business, wood, property, banking, etc., were owned by Suharto’s cronies and families.



Liberalisation and Crisis

The table above also illustrates the inter-linkages between banks and industrial sectors in each group. Instead of functioning as financial intermediary, the banks practically were the cronies’ cash-cow. Public funds were used for financial support of businesses which belonged in the same group.

The unhealthy financial practices, along with financial liberalisation undertaken at the time, subsequently led to a demise of Indonesian economy, and also the Suharto regime, during the 1997 monetary crisis.

The break down of the banking sector subsequently initiated public distrust when 16 banks were closed down altogether on November 1, 1997. Later, the banking collapse also led to bankruptcy of the industrial sectors that the banks previously supported. At this point, the ‘monetary crisis’ has been transformed to an economic crisis and later developed to be multi-dimensional socio-political crises.

Impacts

It is the multi-dimensional crises that we are still suffering up to date. Therefore, the view which says that “Suharto’s time is better than now” is not consistent with the history of Indonesian economic development.

The current sunset of Indonesia’s industry is the result of the flimsy foundation that was built during Suharto’s reign. The ‘colonialism’ of Indonesia’s natural resources is also the impact of Suharto’s economic policy. The current problems in the banking sector are still the continuing effect of the sector’s collapse during the monetary crisis. We can still find many today’s problems that are rooted in flawed policies in Suharto’s time.

Having said this, it does not mean that the current administration can be released from its responsibility. The biggest mistake of post-Suharto governments is the inability to make a clear cut from Suharto’s policies and political-economic system, which have caused problems for the people until this moment. It is the responsibility that the current government must answer.

This article is a shorter version of my op-ed published in Bahasa Indonesia in a newspaper.

economy Continue>>

What's your headline for Suharto's death?

First time I knew about Suharto's death was from TVRI. The government-owned TV station repeatedly reported the press conference from Tutut, Suharto's daughter, with full of tears. I imagine many Indonesians, who love drama and sinetron (soap opera), will be saddened to watch Tutut crying. That's the impact the the news trying to make.

Then, I switched the channel to Metro TV and I got the same impression. This TV station wants to portray Suharto as a national hero who deserved condolences.

When I switched to international TV stations, however, I got a different impression. International stations came up with honest and direct headlines. They want to tell the world that a brutal and corrupt dictator of Indonesia has died.

What I got from international headlines is Indonesia deserves a new beginning with a death of its dictator. Confession of Suharto as a dictator reveals that this country will never repeat the same mistake. Sadly, Indonesian media does not teach this nation the same message.

Headlines of Suharto's Death

Indonesian Media	International Media
Kompas: Warisan Soeharto (Suharto's legacy) Metro TV: Selamat Jalan Pak Harto (Good bye, Pak Harto) Media Indonesia: Pak Harto Berpulang (Pak Harto Dies)	AP: Ex-Indonesian Dictator Suharto Dies The Independent: Suharto, tyrant of Indonesia, dies without facing justice The Canadian Press: Disgraced and vilified, Indonesia's ex-dictator Suharto dies aged 86 CNN: Suharto was charming, but lethal, NPR: Longtime Indonesian Strongman Suharto Dies at 86

Now, what would be your headline for Suharto's death?

politics Continue>>

Who isn't ready for democracy, General?

Indonesian military (TNI) Chief, General Djoko Santoso (click for profile) said that recent regional election disputes which turned violent in some regions served notice that the nation was not prepared for democracy.

Well, if the general was referring to the recent conflict in South Sulawesi, I think the problem is not specifically about democracy.

In South Sulawesi, the campaign period and elections went peacefully. Syahrul Yasin Limpo was elected with 39.5 percent of votes. Mr. Limpo was backed by PDI-P, the national opposition party, and PAN (National Mandate Party).

The situation went bad, however, after the Supreme Court annulled the election results and subsequently ordered re-election in four districts. Many have pointed out that, based on the constitution, it is not the Supreme Court's authority to order re-election. It can give instruction for the KPUD (regional election committee) to recount but not to hold a re-election.

In other areas, the problem is also about overlapping authorities between state institutions. In North Maluku, for example, The National Election Committee (KPU) took over the authority of the North Maluku KPUD to announce the election result which was won by Golkar's Abdul Gafur. The take over was later canceled by the Supreme Court, because, according to the court, the KPU has no rights to do it.

Based on these cases, we can identify that the problem is not about democracy. It is related to unfinished reform in regional autonomy program. Since the implementation in 2001, the program still has major issues to be resolved and the biggest of all is overlapping authorities between state institutions at the national and regional levels.

Having said that, we have to ask the General for a clarification. What do you mean by 'this nation'? I don't think it's 'the nation', but perhaps it's the elite who aren't prepared for democracy.

politics Continue>>

Finally he dies...

The 30-year-old man from Tangerang whom I mentioned about in my previous post has been reported to be the 98^th bird flu death out of 120 infections so far in Indonesia.

He was also reported to had no contacts with fowl like previous victims. Is it a case of infections from non-birds like the Washington Post reported?

See records of news about bird flu in Indonesia in SGP's health risk section.

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The sunset of small and medium enterprises

During the 1997 economic crisis, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) were praised as the back bone of Indonesian economy. At that time, most of the major and big industries had to close down due to large amount of debts in foreign reserves.

Ten years after, however, the story is very different. Most of the big industries have revived and some even succeeded to exceed their level of pre-crisis assets (see previous post related to this in here).

On the other hand, current increase of oil and basic goods prices have made many SMEs come to bitter decision of closing down their businesses. Bisnis Indonesia daily reported that noodles and bread producers have stopped their operations as a result of global wheat price hike.

The closure of these businesses is an addition to last week's temporary production halt of tempeh and tofu.

The government's reaction is also different. When the big businesses collapsed, the government intervened the market by bailing out their foreign debts. Now, we can hardly see any actions taken by the government.

economy Continue>>

Bird flu: keep counting, but forgotten

I read the news today that Indonesia confirms 120th bird flu infection. This time the notorious H5N1 virus hits a 30-year-old man in Tangerang, a satellite city to the west of Jakarta.

No less than 6 days ago, the health ministry also reported the 96^th death of a 16-year-old girl caused by the virus. Two weeks earlier, a 32-year-old woman was also reported to be the 95^th bird flu victim.

Do we still remember that we are the country worst affected by this virus? Why is no one talking about this epidemic anymore?

politics Continue>>

How will Suharto's Berkeley Mafia be remembered?

Richard Robison wrote an article about the late Dr. Sadli's legacy as one of the architects of Indonesia's Suharto economic development. Many people see that although Suharto was a cruel dictator, he somehow was 'successful' in building Indonesian economy to achieve high growth. It is exactly the point of view that Emil Salim and many others have.

Nonetheless, Suharto's economic 'achievements', as Robison points out, were not entirely aimed at the nation's benefit. The technocrats failed to contain their economic policies from being used to benefit Suharto, his family and his cronies.

...[b]ut the defining aspect of the technocrats was increasingly their relationship with the system of cronyism that pervaded the Suharto regime. It is true that Suharto was willing to back the technocrats where the macro-economy collided with vested interests... the technocrats were never able to contain the vast system of monopolies and privileges, selective tariff protection and the massive flows of foreign and state bank credit into private hands for projects of doubtful commercial viability...

Lastly, in addition to what Robison has said, they also failed to see that their economic policies that were narrowly focused on high economic growth would underestimate the need to achieve social justice^#.

#. Manurung (2007)

political economy Continue>>

A Suharto's defender

Al Jazeera's 101 East presented Emil Salim, Wimar Witoelar and Mugiyanto, on a talkshow about Suharto and his legacy as a dictator.

I've never felt so dull watching my former professor talking about the loss of human lives as a trade-off to economic development. If the aim of economic development is to create better livelihood, then why can loss of lives be justified?

Wimar Witoelar: Do you really believe he [Suharto] could be good? Are you still trying to tell us that he is good?

Emil Salim: Well, I worked with him…

It's sad to see a man whom I knew as one of 'a few good men' makes himself as a defender of a brutal and murderous dictator.

Read the full transcript and watch the video in Perspektif.

Previous posts about Suharto:

• An interview with a foreign Journalist about Suharto
• Mr Lee, Suharto is the luckiest dictator on Earth!
• Who wants Suharto's death?

political economy Continue>>

Breakfast without Tempeh

I usually have breakfast near Jalan H. Agus Salim after dropping my wife at her office. My breakfast menu is either nasi goreng kambing (lamb fried rice) or ketoprak, and always with one or two pieces of tempe goreng (fried tempeh).

But, after the tempeh producer's demonstration because of the global soy bean price hike, I had my breakfast without tempe goreng!

We're not a tempeh nation anymore...

picture Continue>>

Oh no, not you again!

Sultan Hamengkubuwono X of Yogyakarta declares that he is running for president in the 2009 elections.

He joins other candidates who have previously declared their candidacy, namely Megawati Soekarnoputri, Wiranto and Sutiyoso. Others who are also indicated to run for president are Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (current president), Jusuf Kalla (current vice president), and Akbar Tanjung (former Golkar chairman).

From their political background, we know that only Megawati Soekarnoputri who doesn't come from Golkar or its affiliations. We can still remember that, in the past, Golkar consisted of three political blocks, namely the military, the bureaucracy and the socio-political organisations who supported Golkar when it was established in 1964 (the KINOs).


We also know that so far we haven't got new figures come up for the next presidential elections. The above seven names were also the same people who participated in the previous election.

Should we wait for beyond 2009 to have a new generation of leadership?

politics Continue>>

Today's young people: more educated, but jobless

The United Nations' 2007 Global Youth Report indicated that today's young people (15-24 years old) are overall the best educated generation in history. However, this whole bunch of intellectuals are struggling to get a decent job they deserve.

This finding is consistent with the same fact in Indonesia. The graph below indicates that school enrollment in this country has steadily increased. However, the unemployment rate for senior high school graduates is also the highest and has increased since 2003.

School Enrollment and Unemployment Rate, 2000-6 (%)

In a nutshell, today's young people in Indonesia, and also the world, are brighter, but jobless.

Data source: Faisal Basri and BPS.

economy Continue>>

A new comer to the blogosphere

Welcome to a new comer to the blogosphere: my wife, Wasty Kurnia Evasari. Happy blogging, honey!

blogging Continue>>

An interview with a foreign Journalist about Suharto

Last weekend, Budiman Sudjatmiko and I had an interview with a foreign journalist.

Here are some excerpts from the interview:

Q: As a former student activist during the reform in 1998, do you have any personal issues with Suharto?

A: Not at all! I have nothing personal with Suharto. He has never hurt me as an individual. So my perspective is not based on any personal interests or revenge. It’s about justice and the interest of our nation.

Q: How should we see Suharto, a hero or a villain?

A: I think, every one has his/her positive and negative sides.

Q: Do you agree with those who ask forgiveness for Suharto? What should we do to him?

A: I think we should treat Suharto as how we treat other citizens of this country. People seem to lose balance when talking about Suharto. Some people say that we should forgive him, or in a nutshell, we are asked to remember all the good things and forget the bad things that he has done.

I’m okay with that. But, why is it only for Suharto? How about other figures that also have contributions for our republic? There are plenty of them which our official history recorded as ‘bad guys’ or ‘betrayers of the republic’ despite their valuable contributions during the independence revolution and proclamation.

We can mention some names: Tan Malaka, Semaun, Amir Sjarifuddin, Kartosuwiryo and even DN. Aidit. They also have great contribution to our nation. Tan Malaka was a big philosopher and he was included among those who say “100 percent independence” when other early leaders of the republic cooperated with the colonial government. Semaun was a leader of labour movement and organised plenty of labour strikes against the Dutch colonial rule. Amir Sjarifuddin was the secretary of the famous 1928 Youth Congress which gave birth to the historical Sumpah Pemuda (Youth Oath). He was also Indonesia's former Prime Minister and Minister of Defense. Kartosuwiryo led his paramilitary troops to fight against the Dutch. DN. Aidit was a member of the youth group who brought Sukarno and Hatta to Rengasdengklok and pushed them to proclaim Indonesia’s independence after Japan left Indonesia and subsequently resulted in a vacuum of power.

Why then, we are asked to ‘remember the good and forget the bad things’ for Suharto, while at the same time ‘remember the bad and forget the good things’ for others? This is not a fair treatment. This is not justice.

Q: So, do you think the Government should continue to pursue Suharto’s legal case? Why?

A: Yes, I do. Indonesia is a nation who has problems with her history. There are plenty of events in our history which are left in question: the Madiun Affair, 1 Oktober 1965, the mass killings in 1965-66, human rights abuses in Aceh, Lampung, East Timor, Papua, and many others.

Suharto is the ‘gate’ to open clearance for all the ‘grey areas’ in our history. If we can uphold justice in Suharto’s case, then we can move on to solve other critical issues in our history.

Why should we make our history clear? Like Winston Churchill, the former British Prime Minister, says: “A nation that ignores its past, will have problems in the present and a bleak future.” Only if we deal with our past, we can walk to the future.

politics Continue>>

Mr Lee, Suharto is the luckiest dictator on Earth!

Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew said that he's very sad after paying a visit to Suharto at the hospital.

I feel sad to see a very old friend with whom I had worked closely over the last 30 years, not really getting the honours that he deserves. He deserves recognition for what he did... I'm very sad to see his life come to an end without the full glory that he deserves...

Mr. Lee, your former dictator friend is the luckiest dictator in the world. Although his crimes against humanity can be compared with Adolf Hitler, he isn't dying for taking a suicide. He has never been called for justice on court, or caught like Augusto Pinochet. He also hasn't been exiled like Idi Amin and Ferdinand Marcos.

Although Transparency International has declared Suharto as the number one corrupt leader in the world, his wealth is still secured and untouched. Even more, the wealth is still growing so that in 2007, his son, Bambang Trihatmodjo, was listed as one of the top 40 richest in Indonesia.

Despite all of his corruptions and crimes, his title of "Bapak Pembangunan" (the Father of Development) that the MPR gave him in 1983, has never been annulled. This fact is contrary to what he did to his predecessor, Sukarno, whose title as "Pemimpin Besar Revolusi" (the Great Leader of Revolution) was canceled in 1967.

Lastly, he didn't also pay a visit to Sukarno and AH. Nasution when they were ill. He even kept the dying Sukarno in house arrest and prevented proper medication for him. But, look at what happens with him now; he gets the government's full support for medication and a call from President Yudhoyono to stop discussing Suharto's legal case.

So, Mr. Lee, I don't understand what you mean by 'not getting the honours that he deserves'. What Suharto does not get is justice for all his crimes and corruptions.

UPDATE 16 January 2008:
I'm really happy to see positive responses from Singaporeans about this post. Among others, response from Choo Zheng Xi of theonlinecitizen.com is truly worth your time to read: MM Lee: Lucky Indonesians.

Before Suharto dies then, let me try to set the record straight. Suharto is a corrupt, cruel, murderous albeit economically successful dictator. And watching a senior member of my government’s Cabinet attempting to rewrite history makes me angry.

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Who wants Suharto's death?

People are talking about Suharto as if he's already gone! Yes, as told by his doctors, his condition is declining, but he's still alive.

"He was able to recognize me and spoke to me," said Moerdiono, his former secretary of state, as quoted by the Jakarta Post.

So, he's pretty much alive.

But, look at what the military (TNI) is doing:

The TNI will prepare five airplanes to carry Suharto's remains, family and mourners. The funeral will consist of three military ceremonies including a military burial, to take place at the Suharto family cemetery in Mangadeg, Central Java. (The Jakarta Post, 9 January 2008, p.1)

Now, who really wants Suharto's death? Not me, for sure. I wish and pray for Suharto's health so that he can face the court for all of his human rights abuses (among others, the involuntary disappearances) and corruptions. I believe many others who truly love democracy and uphold human rights will think the same.

On the other hand, it seems like his former allies; Golkar, the military and the dictator's business cronies, who want him dead and subsequently their crimes will be buried together with Suharto!

Related posts in other blogs: Wimar Witoelar, Ong Hock Chuan.

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Yudhoyonomics: Throw away momentum, then make correction

Data on post-crisis Indonesia's economic growth shows how Yudhoyono's economic performance in comparison with his predecessors.

President Abdurrahman Wahid recorded sharp fluctuations. It is consistent with the political situation at that time when Indonesia was just starting her democratic transition. While Wahid was trying to build the foundations of Indonesia's democracy and civil supremacy, many parties, especially those who belong to the old regime, felt that the transformation would do them harm. And we all know the rest of the story, Wahid was toppled through a 'constitutional coup' in the MPR.

Megawati Soekarnoputri, who continued Wahid's term, showed a steady acceleration of economic growth. As can be seen in the graph, her period in the office demonstrated acceleration and consolidation of Indonesia's economy after the economic meltdown in 1997.

Yudhoyono, although he won the support of the masses, failed to continue the acceleration. Since he was installed in the office, the country's economic growth deteriorated and reached its peak in 2005 when he cut the fuel subsidy more than 100 per cent. After throwing away the momentum for growth, he subsequently made correction when the economic growth reached 6.5 percent, which is still below Megawati's top performance at 6.6 per cent.

PS: data taken from Faisal Basri's presentation. The powerpoint file can be downloaded from here (1.5 MB).

economy Continue>>

Will Yudhoyono get re-elected?

Maybe yes, according to approval rates recently published by Lembaga Survey Indonesia (LSI). The average approval rate is still slightly above 50 percent. However, all of the seven issues that were surveyed show a decreasing trend and four of them are below 50 percent (unemployment, poverty reduction, fuel, price of basic needs).

Yudhoyono's Approval Rates

If Yudhoyono does not improve his administration’s performance, then most likely the decreasing trend will continue to be lower than 50 percent by 2009, the year which general election will be held.

Nevertheless, the crucial issue is, as Tempo magazine said, this country would have achieved better if the government had done their job better and... faster. We are again losing our momentum.

politics Continue>>